Mia Dall Under 187  As game 5 flew over the number for the first time in the series this game looks to revert back to form  and should settle well under the total as both teams play the biggest game since 2005.  As both coaches warn their teams to not get into the penalty to early both defenses will make sure to not make the mistakes of game 5.  Look for the pace of the game to be much slower and fast break points to be much less.  

Dall +1 This line has moved from when it opened at Dallas as minus 2- so a lot of money has down on the Heat. Nowitzky says he feels great for the game so most people are playing the zig zag theory of the Heat rebounding with James being extra motivated after the worst game of his playoff career.   I still like the Mavs to win this game in a back and forth physical game that will come down to the wire with a Dallas win.  With all the talk about James people need to realize that the Heat's real killer is Wade.  This series proves it, when Lebron hides Wade wants the ball and will usually score in many different ways.  If James wants the ball in a important spot tonight it could very well hurt his team because of his reliance on his long jump shots.  Once a series gets to this point the teams are really getting to know each other and are trying to exploit weakness and play to their strengths.  the coaches become more and more important and we will see the Mavs have a big edge come crunch time.      

Dall -3  It goes without saying that if Dallas loses tonight they might as well kiss the title goodbye because there is no way they can dig out of a 1-3 hole heading back to Miami for the final two games.  The Mavs did have a good chance to win game three but Wade was red hot from the perimeter and came up short at the end.  Dallas will continue to try to score in transition and when in the half court swing the ball to  the open man when they double on Dirk.  The Heat will continue to exploit match ups on offense and try to attack the basket and use their quickness to double Nowitske then cover the shooter on defense.   I look for this game to stay close until the fourth when Dallas pulls away with free throws.

Miam +2-  In the series summary I talked about how I thought that Dallas has a higher basketball IQ, and that surely showed in game two.  Give the Mavs credit though because they are a team that knows that  7 minutes can be more than enough time to make up a double digit deficit and that is exactly what they did in the biggest comeback in finals history.  Tonight look for the Heat to play with wire to wire focus and again to score off turn overs which has been important for them in the first two games.  Dallas is still having a hard time rebounding and will need to keep the totals close and get more points in transition if they want to head into the fourth with a lead.  This has the smell of a game that should come down to the buzzer so I like Miami with the points.  

Dall +4-  When I say rebound I do mean rebound because to me it's the most important part of the game and Dallas in game one got killed on the boards trying to limit penetration to James and Wade.  That and shooting 37 percent equals a loss almost all of the time in  the NBA but the Mavs still hung around until late in the fourth and had a chance to cover up until the end.  Tonight I think they will have a good chance to pull out a win by shooting better and boxing out.

Dallas +160 for the Series I like the Mavs in this series and while I might be one of the only ones outside of Texas who does I think Dallas has the higher basketball IQ and the better starting five and bench to take the trophy home.  Look for the Heat to have as many match up problems as the Mavs do and will have a difficult time covering all the shooters.  The Mavs will try to force jump shots out of the big three and limit the pick and roll.

Chic Miami under 180  The more I watch this series the more i'm amazed when these teams reach 80 and if it wasn't for the first game having the Bulls grab 19 offensive rebounds and the last game going going into OT, all of these games except one that crept over by a bucket would have gone under.  

The last three games I have gone 0 for 3 against the spread and each one of them was a heart breaker that guys talk about much later over drinks when they are moaning and whining about how unfair the betting game can be.  Believe me I have seen it all over the last 25 years or so and these last 3 games don't surprise me after I was really having a nice run over the last 15 games.  An O/U that trickles over by a bucket, a young team that gives up a 15 point lead with 5 minutes to go, and a 62 win squad led by a MVP who can't score a bucket to save their season, it will all cost you physically and mentally.  What I have learned over the years is that you can't let it 

Chic +5  Yes everybody has been talking about how the Heat are going to the finals and that the Bulls can't score enough or stop the big three on a consistent basis to beat Miami but two games don't make a series and I think the Bulls will play very well tonight and give themselves a great chance to win.  their season comes down to tonight as climbing out of a 3-1 hole is almost next to impossible so look for a big time effort from Chicago's starting five and the bench which gives them an edge.  They win tonight and the talking heads are whistling a different tune.   

Okl City -4  The Thunder can't lose this one or they won't be able to dig out of that big of a hole against such a quality team like Dallas.  Look for Coach Brooks to make hard choices tonight like he did in game 2 if Westbrook has a hard time realizing that he has one of the top 5 players in the world on the floor with him an can' get him the ball.  Maynor might get important minutes but I see that being a good thing since Westbrook is hurting his team in crunch time and doesn't realize it.  The Thunder should not expect another poor shooting night from Nowitski but they are doing a much better job of making him work for his shots.  Look for the Thunder to pull away in the fourth quarter.